Growth in the volume of parcels delivered by the post office dropped from 21% in 2016 to 6% in 2018. There was a 5% year-over-year decline in the first quarter of 2019, according to post-office figures the analyst cited.
The decline comes as Amazon ramps up some of its faster shipping programs and shifts to other options for last-mile deliveries. Blackledge estimates that the share of Amazon’s last-mile deliveries handled by the postal service will drop from about 54% in 2018 to about 35% in 2024. His previous estimate was for a share of 45% in 2024.
The postal service didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.
Other players, such as DHL International, and Amazon affiliates including its Uber-like in-house program Amazon Flex, and its Delivery Service Partner program, are picking up that market share.